19/ 47Seen from abroad
Abroad, newspapers and analysts see democracy at risk with Flávio
In an editorial, Britain’s The Guardian wrote: “A Bolsonaro presidency would be bad for women, the poor and minorities. Democracy would probably be its first victim, locally.”[1] In articles from the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, the US and Colombia, the same themes recur: a pardon for Flávio’s father[2][3], convicted of leading an attempted coup[4], and the Supreme Court[5].
26 Sep. 2026 · Financial Times (United Kingdom), report by Michael Pooler
Meet the Bolsonaros: a clan as radical as it is dysfunctional. Swinging between conservatism and chaos, they practice a paranoid style of politics.[6]
30 Sep. 2026 · The Guardian (United Kingdom), editorial
The senator campaigned as a less coarse and temperamental version of his father, but no less extremist.[1]
5 Oct. 2026 · The Economist (United Kingdom)
Flávio’s main proposal is to pardon his father, the coup’s instigator, who is serving his sentence under house arrest because of an old wound.[2]
5 Oct. 2026 · taz (Germany), column by Niklas Franzen
Three weeks remain to prevent the catastrophe that, from the left’s perspective, threatens the country. If that fails, Brazil could face politically very dark years.[7]
5 Oct. 2026 · CH Media (Switzerland), analysis by Klaus Ehringfeld and Fabian Hock
For Brazilian democracy, a Bolsonaro victory would be a heavy blow.[3]
5 Oct. 2026 · Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly (US)
…barring a surprising turnaround by Lula, it will allow the Bolsonaros not only to return, but to return more powerful than before, with the power to pursue their agenda and take revenge on enemies, including the so-called deep state. The Brazilian variant could bring the impeachment of Supreme Court justices and a purge of the federal bureaucracy.[5]
Oct. 2026 · Financial Times (United Kingdom), editorial
If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro risks triggering a new institutional crisis if he pursues his promise to free his father from prison without decisive backing from Congress[8]
6 Oct. 2026 · Andre Pagliarini, historian at Louisiana State University (US), to Al Jazeera
The irony, of course, is that Flávio himself was directly implicated in the Banco Master scandal in a way that Lula was not.[9]
8 Oct. 2026 · El Espectador (Colombia), editorial, on his father’s conviction
The evidence is plain to see, for anyone acting in good faith to examine and, at the very least, question the Bolsonaro family’s fitness to remain a viable political actor in a democracy that claims to respect the rule of law.[10]
Our translations, from the original or, in The Economist’s case, from the Spanish republication. The Financial Times report was translated by Diário do Grande ABC; the Guardian editorial, by IHU-Unisinos; the FT editorial, by BBC News Brasil. In the Master case, Flávio is under investigation in the inquiry into the financing of a film about his father[11] and denies wrongdoing[9].
The pattern
The father, the Supreme Court, democracy
Four of these articles discuss Flávio’s plan to spare his father his sentence, through a pardon or amnesty[2][3][5][8]. Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced by the STF to 27 years and three months in prison for leading an attempted coup, and is serving his sentence under house arrest[4].
According to The Economist, Bolsonaro will have enough Senate allies for the two-thirds majority needed to impeach Supreme Court justices. The magazine also says Flávio wants to pardon his brother Eduardo, “who lives in self-imposed exile in Texas”[2].
The counterpoint
Who applauded, who criticized Lula
This page brings together newspapers and analysts, not the world’s opinion. Two presidents celebrated. Donald Trump: “It is a great victory — narrow, but a very, very great victory. Incredible”[12]. Javier Milei hailed the “historic election against the communist Lula”[13]. In the US, three Democratic senators accused the Trump administration of “a campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil”[14].
Three of these newspapers also criticize Lula. The Economist writes that “Brazilians are growing tired of Lula”[2]. For the FT, the Bolsonaros’ return is explained by Lula’s failures, not Flávio’s achievements[8]. The Guardian cites those who think him too old, at 80, for a fourth term[1].
The vote
The decision is here
In the first round, Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%. Less than two points separate them. Foreign newspapers have already written what they see. On 25 October, Brazilian voters decide[5].
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References14 sources
- 01IHU-Unisinos (tradução do The Guardian) · Lula versus Bolsonaro: a decisão dos eleitores brasileiros afetará a todos nós. Editorial do The GuardianGuardian editorial of September 30: Flávio “no less extremist” than his father; democracy would “probably” be the first victim; Lula’s age.(opens in a new tab)
- 02The Economist, no Infobae · El regreso de los Bolsonaro en BrasilA pardon for his father as the main proposal, a pardon for Eduardo, two thirds of the Senate and fatigue with Lula.(opens in a new tab)
- 03CH Media, no Bote der Urschweiz · Bolsonaro-Clan triumphiert: 5 Erkenntnisse zum Rechtsruck in BrasilienA Bolsonaro victory would be a “schwerer Einschnitt” for democracy; pardoning his father among the first acts.(opens in a new tab)
- 04Agência Brasil · Defesa cita novos fatos e pede revisão da condenação de BolsonaroSentenced to 27 years and three months “for leading an attempted coup”; serving the sentence under house arrest.(opens in a new tab)
- 05Americas Quarterly · REACTION: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula Advance to Brazil’s Presidential RunoffBrian Winter on impeaching Supreme Court justices and amnesty for his father; 47.03% to 45.16% in the first round; runoff on 25 October.(opens in a new tab)
- 06Diário do Grande ABC (sobre o Financial Times) · Financial Times compara os Bolsonaros à família Trump e diz que têm estilo paranoicoThe FT report of September 26: “a clan as radical as it is dysfunctional” with “a paranoid style of politics”.(opens in a new tab)
- 07taz · Erster Gang der Präsidentschaftswahl: Brasilien drohen dunkle JahreNiklas Franzen’s column: the catastrophe “aus linker Sicht” and the “sehr dunkle Jahre” if it is not averted.(opens in a new tab)
- 08BBC News Brasil, em A Gazeta (sobre o Financial Times) · Ressurgimento de Bolsonaro expõe a fraqueza de Lula, diz jornal econômico mais importante do mundoFT editorial: the risk of a “new institutional crisis” and the Bolsonaros’ return explained by Lula’s failures.(opens in a new tab)
- 09Al Jazeera · Why Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed the polls in Brazil’s electionAndre Pagliarini’s statement about Banco Master; Flávio denies wrongdoing.(opens in a new tab)
- 10El Espectador · ¿Cómo leer lo que pasó en Brasil?Editorial: after his father’s conviction, doubt about the “idoneidad de la familia Bolsonaro”.(opens in a new tab)
- 11Agência Brasil · Mendonça incluiu Flávio Bolsonaro como investigado no caso Dark HorseFlávio is under investigation in the inquiry into the film’s financing.(opens in a new tab)
- 12La Libre Belgique (AFP) · Présidentielle au Brésil : Donald Trump salue “une grande victoire” de Flavio BolsonaroTrump on the first round: “une très, très grande victoire”.(opens in a new tab)
- 13Perfil · “La Libertad Avanza en Brasil”: el mensaje de Milei tras el triunfo de Flávio BolsonaroMilei: “Histórica elección ante el comunista de Lula”.(opens in a new tab)
- 14Common Dreams · Alarm Grows Over ‘Clearly Illegal’ Trump-Rubio Election Meddling in BrazilLetter from senators Shaheen, Kaine and Welch to Rubio: “a campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil”.(opens in a new tab)