53% see Flávio as more capable on security. The military police answer to the governor.

The Constitution says the military and civil police “are subordinate […] to the Governors”^[2]. In 2025, there were 413 thousand military police and 97 thousand civil police officers, compared with 25 thousand PF and PRF officers: more than 20 for each federal officer^[6].

The states paid 80% of the bill in 2025^[5]. Sentences and the age of criminal responsibility are indeed decided by Congress^[2]. But the police who patrol the streets and investigate homicides answer to the governor, whoever the president is^[2].

The government program Flávio registered with the TSE opens with security^[7]. There are 12 proposals; six toughen sentences or expand imprisonment, such as criminal responsibility at 16 and prisons “following the model adopted by El Salvador”^[3].

None says how much it costs in reais or how much crime should fall. The promise to “at least double federal investment” says neither how much nor where it will come from. The half a million prison places would be created “in partnership with state governments”^[3].

Flávio proposes lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16^[3], an idea supported by 79%, according to Datafolha^[8]. Adolescents are already held accountable for their actions from age 12: offences lead to measures ranging from a warning to detention^[9].

In the US, the CDC task force concluded that transferring young people to adult courts “typically increases, rather than decreases” violence among them, and recommends against such laws for that purpose^[10]. In Germany, young people aged 18 to 21 may go through the juvenile courts^[11].

In 2019, Flávio voted to keep his father's government decree that eased access to guns^[12]. In 2023, during the debate on a gun bill he co-authored, he said: “In the United States, where there is almost one gun per person, crime rates are very low”^[13].

Using 2010 data, the US homicide rate was 7 times that of other wealthy OECD countries; its firearm homicide rate, 25 times^[14]. FBSP researchers estimate that without the rise in guns from 2019, 6,379 lives would have been saved in Brazil^[15].

“The certainty of being caught is an immensely more powerful deterrent than punishment”, sums up the NIJ, the US Department of Justice's research agency^[4]. For the US National Research Council, the deterrent effect of lengthening already long sentences is “modest, at best”^[16].

Only 36% of Brazil's 2023 homicides had been solved by the end of 2024: just over 1 in 3^[17]. In the Senate, Flávio voted for the Anti-Gang Law, approved by 64 to 0^[18]. But none of his 12 proposals mentions homicide investigations or forensic work^[3].

The Public Security PEC, submitted by the Lula government, puts cooperation between federal, state and municipal governments into the Constitution and awaits a full Senate vote^[19]. In the Chamber, it passed by 487 votes to 15 in the first vote^[20]. On October 25, the question is which proposal helps catch those who kill.