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Mapa do Segundo Turno
Mapa do Segundo Turno

35/ 52Soft on crime?

Soft? The facts say otherwise

From 2006 to 2026, Lula signed tough laws against drug trafficking, femicide and criminal factions[1][2][3]. In 2025, violent deaths hit their lowest level since 2012, when the series began[4].

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What Lula signed

  1. 23 Aug. 2006 · Drug Law

    5 to 15 years in prison for trafficking; drug users are not jailed[1]

  2. 1 Jan. 2023 · Guns and CACs

    A decree suspends registrations of restricted-use guns for CACs (hunters, sport shooters and collectors) and civilians, plus new CACs and gun clubs[5]

  3. 22 Dec. 2023 · Christmas pardon

    Excludes heinous crimes, drug trafficking, organized crime, violence against women, crimes against the democratic rule of law and faction leaders[6]

  4. 11 Apr. 2024 · Prison furloughs

    A criminological exam to move to a milder regime, and no more furloughs for those convicted of heinous crimes or crimes with violence or serious threat[7]

  5. 9 Oct. 2024 · Femicide

    Femicide becomes a crime in its own right, punishable by 20 to 40 years in prison[2]

  6. 28 Aug. 2025 · Operation Carbono Oculto

    About 1,400 agents target the PCC gang in the fuel sector, where over a thousand gas stations moved R$ 52 billion from 2020 to 2024[8]

  7. 4 Mar. 2026 · Security amendment

    The Chamber passes the Public Security constitutional amendment 461 to 14[9]; on October 14, the Senate Constitution and Justice Committee concluded its vote[10]

  8. 24 Mar. 2026 · Anti-Faction Law

    Sent by the government, it creates the crime of structured social domination, punishable by 20 to 40 years, with no amnesty, pardon or bail[3]

The security amendment is not yet law: it goes to the Senate floor[10]. After the Drug Law, the share of inmates held for drug-related crimes rose from 9% in 2005 to 28% in 2014[11].

Violence

“Violence went up.” It didn’t

The intentional violent death rate fell from 22.7 per 100,000 people in 2022 to 19.1 in 2025, the lowest level since 2012, when the series began[4][12].

Public security is mainly a state responsibility, so the fall is not the work of a single government. But the data contradict those who say violence rose under Lula[4].

“Thug allowance”

The benefit dates from 1960

Lula did not create the prisoner's family benefit (auxílio-reclusão): it has existed since 1960 and is in the 1988 Constitution. It equals the minimum wage and goes to dependents of low-income inmates in closed regime[13].

The Anti-Faction Law, passed by Congress and kept by Lula when he signed it, bars the benefit to dependents of those jailed for the crime of structured social domination[3].

Prison furloughs

Lula signed the restriction

In 2024, Lula signed the law restricting temporary furloughs and requiring a criminological exam to move to a milder prison regime[7]. He vetoed only the part on family visits, and Congress overrode the veto[14].

The prison population rose from 832,295 in 2022 to 964,668 in 2025[4]. Lula's Christmas pardons excluded drug trafficking, heinous crimes and faction leaders[6][15].

Femicide

Tougher penalty, less underreporting

Recorded femicides rose to 1,571 in 2025[12]. Total homicides of women, however, fell 12.8% between 2016 and 2024[16].

For FBSP researcher Isabella Matosinhos, part of the rise comes from the law taking hold and from less underreporting[16]. The facts are on the table. The choice, on the 25th, is yours.

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References16 sources

  1. 01Planalto · Lei nº 11.343, de 23 de agosto de 2006Signed by Lula; trafficking (art. 33) punishable by 5 to 15 years; users (art. 28) not jailed.(opens in a new tab)
  2. 02Planalto · Lei nº 14.994, de 9 de outubro de 2024Femicide as a crime in its own right (art. 121-A), 20 to 40 years in prison.(opens in a new tab)
  3. 03Planalto · Lei nº 15.358, de 24 de março de 2026Raul Jungmann Law: structured social domination punishable by 20 to 40 years; no amnesty, grace, pardon or bail; ban on the prisoner's family benefit (art. 2, § 6).(opens in a new tab)
  4. 04Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública · 20º Anuário Brasileiro de Segurança Pública: 2026Intentional violent deaths: 47,963 (22.7 per 100,000) in 2022 and 40,775 (19.1) in 2025, the lowest since 2012; prison population from 832,295 (2022) to 964,668 (2025).(opens in a new tab)
  5. 05Planalto · Decreto nº 11.366, de 1º de janeiro de 2023Suspends registrations of restricted-use guns for CACs and civilians, new CACs and gun clubs.(opens in a new tab)
  6. 06Planalto · Decreto nº 11.846, de 22 de dezembro de 2023The pardon excludes heinous crimes, organized crime, drug trafficking, violence against women, crimes against the democratic rule of law and faction leaders.(opens in a new tab)
  7. 07Planalto · Lei nº 14.843, de 11 de abril de 2024Criminological exam for regime progression; no furloughs for heinous crimes or crimes with violence or serious threat.(opens in a new tab)
  8. 08Poder360 · Operação desarticula megaesquema do PCC no setor de combustíveisAbout 1,400 agents; over a thousand gas stations moved R$ 52 billion from 2020 to 2024.(opens in a new tab)
  9. 09Agência Câmara · Câmara aprova PEC da Segurança Pública em 2º turnoPassed in the second round by 461 votes to 14.(opens in a new tab)
  10. 10Agência Senado · CCJ conclui votação da PEC da Segurança; texto vai ao PlenárioThe Constitution and Justice Committee concluded its vote on October 14; the text goes to the floor.(opens in a new tab)
  11. 11Agência Pública · Alexandre de Moraes acerta aumento de prisões após Lei de Drogas9% of inmates held for drug-related crimes in 2005; 28% in 2014.(opens in a new tab)
  12. 12InfoMoney · Mortes violentas caem 8,2% no país em 2025; feminicídios aumentam 4%Lowest level since 2012; 1,571 femicides in 2025.(opens in a new tab)
  13. 13Aos Fatos · É falso que auxílio-reclusão foi criado por Lula e que pode chegar a R$ 4.000Created in 1960, guaranteed by the 1988 Constitution, equal to the minimum wage, for dependents of low-income inmates in closed regime.(opens in a new tab)
  14. 14Congresso em Foco · Veja como cada deputado e senador votou na derrubada do veto sobre saidinhasCongress overrode the veto: 52 to 11 in the Senate and 314 to 126 in the Chamber.(opens in a new tab)
  15. 15Planalto · Decreto nº 12.338, de 23 de dezembro de 2024The pardon excludes heinous crimes, organized crime, drug trafficking and faction leaders.(opens in a new tab)
  16. 16Jornal de Brasília (Folhapress) · País vê recorde de feminicídios em meio à queda de homicídios totais de mulheres; entenda motivosHomicides of women from 4,245 (2016) to 3,700 (2024), −12.8%; Isabella Matosinhos attributes part of the rise to the law taking hold.(opens in a new tab)