34/ 47Public debt
Japan, the US and Italy owe more than Brazil. Nobody talks of collapse.
Brazil’s public debt is high and deserves attention. But the world’s richest countries owe more as a share of GDP[1], and today’s level was already exceeded in 2020, under Bolsonaro’s government[2].
Gross government debt as a share of GDP
General government gross debt · % of GDP · FMI · linear scale with zero
- Japan206.5%
2025[1]
- Italy137.1%
2025[1]
- US123.9%
2025[1]
- France116.0%
2025[1]
- Canada113.5%
2025[1]
- Rich-country average108.0%
2025[1]
- United Kingdom102.3%
2025[1]
- Brazil93.3%
2025[1]
- Germany62.9%
2025[1]
FMI estimate for 2025, using the same criteria for all countries. Under Banco Central’s criteria, which exclude securities held by the BC itself, Brazil’s debt is lower.
View the figures in a table
| Government | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Japan | 206.5% | 2025 |
| Italy | 137.1% | 2025 |
| US | 123.9% | 2025 |
| France | 116.0% | 2025 |
| Canada | 113.5% | 2025 |
| Rich-country average | 108.0% | 2025 |
| United Kingdom | 102.3% | 2025 |
| Brazil | 93.3% | 2025 |
| Germany | 62.9% | 2025 |
Measurement
How debt is measured
Debt is measured against a country’s income, not in reais per person. By the FMI’s calculation, Brazil owes 93.3% of GDP, below the average for advanced economies (108%). It is above the emerging-economy average (73.9%), and that deserves attention[1]. Per person, US debt exceeds US$ 111,000; Japan’s, US$ 74,000; Brazil’s is close to US$ 10,000[1].
Today, debt stands at 82.56% of GDP under Banco Central’s criteria. Between October 2020 and April 2021, under Bolsonaro’s government, it was above that level, peaking at 87.66% in October 2020[2].
Interest
What makes debt grow
In 2026, up to August, debt rose by 4.2 percentage points of GDP. Interest added 6.5 points, and economic growth subtracted 3.6[3]. The Selic rate is 13.75% a year[4].
In the 12 months to August, the interest bill reached R$ 1.18 trillion, or 8.86% of GDP. The primary deficit, the difference between government revenue and spending before interest, was R$ 82 billion, or 0.62% of GDP[3].
Creditors
Who Brazil owes
Almost all federal debt, 96.25%, is domestic and denominated in reais. The securities are held by financial institutions (31.2%), pension funds (22.6%) and investment funds (22.5%). Foreign investors hold 9.9%, and buyers through Tesouro Direto, 3%[5].
Track record
What Lula has already done
During Lula’s first two terms, the public sector posted the largest primary surpluses in the series, averaging 3.5% and 2.8% of GDP[6]. Net debt fell from 59.9% of GDP in 2002 to 38% in 2010[7].
In December 2005, Brazil repaid early the US$ 15.5 billion it still owed the FMI[8]. In 2008, for the first time, the country went from external debtor to external creditor[9]. In the third term, the accounts closed with a small deficit of 0.4% of GDP in both 2024 and 2025[6].
The debt figure is real. The collapse is just a story, and fear also asks for votes.
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References09 sources
- 01FMI · World Economic Outlook, abril de 2026: dívida bruta do governo geral (% do PIB)Debt as a % of GDP in 2025 by country and group; GDP in dollars and population used to calculate debt per person.(opens in a new tab)
- 02Banco Central · Série 13762: dívida bruta do governo geral (% do PIB)82.56% in July 2026; peak of 87.66% in October 2020; above that level until April 2021.(opens in a new tab)
- 03Gazeta Mercantil · Dívida bruta do governo chega a 82,9% do PIB em agosto, mostra Banco CentralInterest +6.5 points and GDP −3.6 in 2026; interest of R$ 1.182 trillion and a primary deficit of R$ 82.1 billion over 12 months.(opens in a new tab)
- 04Banco Central · Histórico das taxas de jurosSelic rate at 13.75% a year.(opens in a new tab)
- 05Tesouro Nacional · Relatório Mensal da Dívida Pública Federal, agosto de 2026Domestic debt is 96.25% of federal debt; holders of the securities.(opens in a new tab)
- 06Banco Central · Série 5793: resultado primário do setor público consolidado em 12 meses (% do PIB)Surpluses from 2003 to 2010; deficits of 0.40% in 2024 and 0.43% in 2025.(opens in a new tab)
- 07Banco Central · Série 4513: dívida líquida do setor público (% do PIB)59.93% in December 2002 and 37.98% in December 2010.(opens in a new tab)
- 08Banco Central · Relatório de Inflação, março de 2006Early repayment of US$ 15.5 billion, the remaining debt to the FMI, in December 2005.(opens in a new tab)
- 09InfoMoney · Principais notícias: Brasil torna-se credor externo com saldo de US$ 4 bi positivoFor the first time, Brazil went from external debtor to external creditor in January 2008.(opens in a new tab)