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Mapa do Segundo Turno
Mapa do Segundo Turno

11/ 47The two plans

Flávio promises lower taxes, more funding and balanced books. He does not say who pays.

We read Lula’s government plans side by side[1] and Flávio Bolsonaro’s[2]. Flávio promises to cut taxes, double security funding and balance the books, all at once, and does not say what it costs[2].

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What each plan saysThe two texts are similar in length: about 23,400 words in Lula’s and 21,300 in Flávio’s.
SubjectLulaFlávio Bolsonaro
Budget and taxes, In the plan

It promises to keep the rules for public finances, the fiscal framework (p. 49), without committing to a number[1]. Congress decides each year’s target[3], which in 2025 blocked two government attempts to tax the financial sector more[4][5].

It promises to reduce VAT (p. 30) and deliver primary surpluses (p. 71). The only cut it details is of “at least 10 ministries”, positions and supersalaries (p. 69)[2].

Security, In the plan

It says where part of the money comes from: “R$ 10 billion from the National Social Infrastructure Investment Fund” (p. 27)[1].

It promises to double federal investment (p. 15), half a million prison places and five prisons “on the model adopted by El Salvador” (p. 14), without saying the cost[2].

Work, In the plan

It keeps real increases to the minimum wage (p. 74) and promises to work toward ending the 6x1 schedule, with a 40-hour week “without wage cuts” (p. 75)[1].

It defends “negotiated agreements over the law” (p. 44). It does not mention the minimum wage or the 6x1 schedule even once[2].

Social programs, In the plan

It promises to “maintain, improve and expand social protection policies” (p. 18). It mentions poverty, hunger or inequality 25 times per 10,000 words[1].

It promises to keep existing programs, but says that, for the left, “dependency becomes votes” (p. 42). It mentions poverty, hunger or inequality 4 times per 10,000 words[2].

Who the target is, In the count

It does not mention the PT once and mentions Bolsonaro four times[1].

It cites the PT nine times and opens by saying that “the tragedy we see bears the PT’s signature” (p. 8). Of its 23 mentions of Bolsonaro, 20 refer to his father’s government, to claim achievements[2].

The Mapa’s count of the body of both texts, without cover, contents or index. Page numbers are those of the PDFs.

The numbers

Expensive promises, no source of funds

Flávio promises 2.5 million homes (p. 47) and R$ 900 billion in public works over four years (p. 51), plus lower taxes and a surplus[2]. The plan does not say what it costs or where the money comes from. On the fund of federal assets it proposes, “the plan does not say which assets and properties would make up the fund, its size or who would manage it”[6].

The method

What the experts say

Flávio’s plan says that “a criminal armed with a rifle in hand will be shot down” (p. 13)[2]. For Luiz Fábio Paiva, of UFC, the security proposals are “populist measures, without evidence, that do not tackle the real causes of violence in the country”. Sociologist Carolina Grillo, of UFF, notes: “Mass incarceration is extremely expensive”[7].

The context

The bill goes through Congress

Congress approves each year’s fiscal target[3]. In 2025, the Chamber struck down two government revenue measures, and each defeat forced it to find the money elsewhere[4][5]. Not everything was blocked: the income tax exemption up to R$ 5,000 passed unanimously[8].

The Budget in Congress

  1. 25 June 2025 · Chamber and Senate

    The Chamber struck down the IOF increase 383 to 98, and the Senate confirmed it the same day. The government expected to raise R$ 10 billion in 2025[4]. It was the first time since 1992 that Congress overturned a presidential decree[9].

  2. 8 Oct. 2025 · Chamber

    By 251 to 193, the Chamber took off the agenda the provisional measure that offset the IOF with more tax on financial institutions. To meet the 2026 target, the government had to find more than R$ 30 billion[5].

  3. 27 Nov. 2025 · Law signed

    Approved unanimously in the Chamber and the Senate, the income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 a month became law, with a tax of up to 10% on incomes above R$ 600,000 a year[8].

  4. 19 Dec. 2025 · 2026 Budget

    Congress approved the Budget with a surplus target of R$ 34.3 billion, met even with a zero deficit, and about R$ 50 billion in parliamentary amendments[3].

Your vote

Read both before the 25th

Both plans are in the references below. Compare the promises and see which one explains how it will deliver. On October 25, the choice is yours.

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References09 sources

  1. 01Plano de governo de Lula · Diretrizes para o Programa de Transformação do Brasil: um país soberano, democrático, desenvolvido, sustentável e criativo84 pages, copy published by Poder360: fiscal framework (p. 49), R$ 10 bn from FIIS (p. 27), minimum wage (p. 74), end of 6x1 (p. 75).(opens in a new tab)
  2. 02Plano de governo de Flávio Bolsonaro · Para o Brasil vencer o atraso: Diretrizes do Plano de Governo 2027-203076 pages, copy published by Poder360: VAT (p. 30), surpluses (p. 71), 10 ministries (p. 69), security (pp. 13–15), housing (p. 47), R$ 900 bn (p. 51).(opens in a new tab)
  3. 03Agência Câmara · Congresso Nacional aprova Orçamento de 2026 com R$ 6,5 trilhões em despesasSurplus target of R$ 34.3 bn, met with a zero deficit; about R$ 50 bn in amendments.(opens in a new tab)
  4. 04CNN Brasil · Em derrota para governo, Câmara derruba aumento do IOF; Senado ainda votará383 to 98 in the Chamber; the decree projected R$ 10 billion in 2025.(opens in a new tab)
  5. 05Exame · Câmara retira MP 1303 da pauta. Derrotado, governo terá de buscar R$ 30 bi para meta de 2026251 to 193; the MP raised the CSLL on financial institutions; more than R$ 30 bn to find for 2026.(opens in a new tab)
  6. 06InvestNews · Flávio Bolsonaro: 5 propostas para a economia em um governoThe plan does not specify the assets, size or manager of the fund of federal assets.(opens in a new tab)
  7. 07Jornal de Brasília (Folhapress) · Especialistas apontam desconhecimento do sistema de segurança pública em plano de Flávio BolsonaroLuiz Fábio Paiva (UFC): “populist measures, without evidence”; Carolina Grillo (UFF): “Mass incarceration is extremely expensive”.(opens in a new tab)
  8. 08Agência Senado · Sancionada isenção do Imposto de Renda para quem ganha até R$ 5 mil por mêsUnanimous approval in both Houses; up to 10% on incomes above R$ 600,000 a year.(opens in a new tab)
  9. 09Exame · Senado confirma derrubada do decreto do IOF e Congresso impõe derrota histórica ao governoSenate confirmed it by voice vote; the first presidential decree overturned since 1992.(opens in a new tab)