21/ 47The Milei model
The cut Flávio promises equals 80% of the government’s free spending
Flávio’s campaign says it is inspired by Milei[1] and promises to cut R$ 190 billion[2], without touching pensions[3]. But 90.8% of the 2026 spending cap is already committed to mandatory expenses[4].
- Promised cutR$ 190 bn
1.5% of GDP that Flávio’s campaign promises to cut · Estimate on 2025 [2]
- Bolsa FamíliaR$ 155.8 bn
The whole program, for the year · 2026 [4]
- Free spendingR$ 237.7 bn
Discretionary spending: everything the law does not require paying · 2026 [4]
- PersonalR$ 416.9 bn
Salaries and payroll costs of federal employees · 2026 [4]
- PensionsR$ 1,081.8 bn
INSS social security benefits · 2026 [4]
Estimated cut on 2025 GDP. The bars are 2026 federal expenses, according to IFI/Senate.
View the figures in a table
| Case | Value | What the value measures | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Promised cut | R$ 190 bn | 1.5% of GDP that Flávio’s campaign promises to cut | Estimate on 2025 |
| Bolsa Família | R$ 155.8 bn | The whole program, for the year | 2026 |
| Free spending | R$ 237.7 bn | Discretionary spending: everything the law does not require paying | 2026 |
| Personal | R$ 416.9 bn | Salaries and payroll costs of federal employees | 2026 |
| Pensions | R$ 1,081.8 bn | INSS social security benefits | 2026 |
The promise
Inspired by Milei
Daniella Marques, economic coordinator of Flávio’s campaign, said on 9/14: “Taking inspiration from the reforms implemented by Javier Milei’s government in Argentina”. She spoke of a “revogaço” repealing more than a thousand regulations and a spending-cut PEC[1]. The goal is to cut 1.5% of GDP, about R$ 190 billion[2].
The numbers
Where R$ 190 billion fits
In 2026, mandatory expenses take up 90.8% of the cap: pensions, salaries and benefits[4]. The cut promised by Flávio’s campaign equals 8 of every 10 reais of 2026 discretionary spending, and is larger than the whole Bolsa Família for the year[4]. Promising this cut without touching benefits requires saying where it comes from.
The program
What the team is studying
On 10/8, Flávio said: “Retirees, rest assured, don’t fall for this PT fake news”[3]. The same day, Folha reported that the team is studying cutting about R$ 250 billion in mandatory spending. Pensions and BPC would be adjusted only for inflation, with no real gain, and the health and education floors would also be capped at inflation[5].
The campaign says there is no official position and that the reference is the government plan[5].
The showcase
The Argentina held up as a model
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References07 sources
- 01FolhaMax · Coordenadora de Flávio fala em inspirar nas reformas de MileiDaniella Marques cites Milei as inspiration, the “revogaço” of regulations and the spending-cut PEC.(opens in a new tab)
- 02Gazeta do Povo · Daniella Marques: plano de Flávio prevê ganho real no salário mínimo e controle de gastosSpending cut equal to 1.5% of GDP, about R$ 190 billion.(opens in a new tab)
- 03Metrópoles · Flávio nega corte na aposentadoria e diz que fará ajuste acima da inflaçãoFlávio promises not to cut pensions: “Retirees, rest assured”.(opens in a new tab)
- 04IFI/Senado · Relatório de Acompanhamento Fiscal nº 116 (setembro de 2026)2026 federal expenses (Table 7) and the 90.8% of the cap committed to mandatory spending.(opens in a new tab)
- 05InfoMoney · Plano de ajuste fiscal de Flávio Bolsonaro prevê corte de 2% do PIB, diz jornalPlan studied by the team, according to Folha: INSS, BPC and floors adjusted only for inflation; the campaign’s response.(opens in a new tab)
- 06La Tercera · Más de 32 mil empresas menos y 437 mil empleos formales perdidos en Argentina durante lo que va del Gobierno de MileiCEPA data: 32,290 fewer companies and 437,611 fewer formal jobs since November 2023.(opens in a new tab)
- 07Infobae · Se agrava la crisis de Granja Tres Arroyos: ofreció pagar parte de los salarios con pollosThe poultry company, under preventive insolvency proceedings, proposed paying part of the overdue wages in chickens.(opens in a new tab)